On December 1st, 2025, Russia’s new recycling fee transformed the economics of importing used cars. What cost 3,400 rubles ($45 USD) to import the day before now costs up to 2.6 million rubles ($34,000 USD). That’s not a typo. The fee has increased over 50,000% in an effort to protect Russia vehicle manufacturing.

For a Toyota RAV4, the recycling fee went from roughtly $45 to $12,000. For a BMW X5, from roughly $52 to $34,000. These aren’t minor adjustments. These fees now represent 15-40% of the vehicle’s total value, potentially pricing mid-range and premium imports out of the Russian market overnight.

This matters globally. Russia is the second-largest importer of used vehicles from Japan after the UAE. According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, 192,289 used passenger cars were exported from Japan to Russia in FY25, representing 14% of total Japanese passenger car exports. Russia primarily imports mid-size cars and SUVs, the same popular models sought by dealers in markets like New Zealand, Ireland, and the UK.

At Nichibo, we’ve spent decades navigating the complexities of international vehicle trade. With this major policy shift, we anticipate the higher taxes causing reduced demand in Russia, which could flow through to auction pricing. Russia’s appetite for mid-range and premium Japanese vehicles may fall off a cliff, maning reduced competition at auction, and we expect this to translate into lower prices for the popular models that Russian buyers previously competed for. Understanding these market dynamics and their impact on pricing is what separates successful dealers from those caught off guard.

What Actually Changed: The Policy Breakdown

A government decree changing how Russia’s recycling fee on cars is calculated took effect on Monday, December 1st, 2025. One of the main changes is the removal of the preferential recycling fee for cars with engines over 160 horsepower when imported by individuals for personal use.

The scale of this change is staggering. Under the old system, individuals importing cars for personal use paid minimal fees: 3,400 rubles (approximately $45 USD) for new cars up to three years old, and 5,200 rubles (roughly $68 USD) for cars older than three years. From December 1st, these same vehicles now incur fees exceeding 1,000,000 rubles (over $10,000 USD) per unit. That’s an increase from roughly $50 to over $10,000, a 200-fold jump that fundamentally changes the economics of importing.

From December 1st, individuals must pay the recycling fee at the rates applied to commercial firms. That means hundreds of thousands or even millions of rubles. The fee is calculated by multiplying a base rate of 20,000 rubles by a coefficient that depends on engine displacement and power. For electric cars and serial hybrids, where a combustion engine is not connected to the wheels, the fee will be based on peak power, the 30-minute output of the electric motor or the sum of power of multiple motors.

In addition to the recycling fee, customs duty remains, calculated depending on engine displacement and the age of the vehicle. Real-world impact examples include:

The bottom line: What used to cost roughly $50 now costs up to $26,000 per vehicle, fundamentally changing the economics of importing mid-range and premium cars into Russia.

What’s Coming Next: January 2026

The pain doesn’t stop there. Starting January 1st, 2026, the recycling fee will rise again under a phased tariff increase adopted in 2024. According to the National Automobile Union, with the new recycling rates the Russian budget could lose up to 300 billion rubles annually because of foregone revenues.

However, the First Deputy Prime Minister said the government does not intend to completely shut the Russian car market off from imports using the recycling fee. The main purpose of the change is to make local manufacturing economically more attractive than direct import. This approach is said to match global practice and aims to support domestic manufacturers rather than simply block foreign car imports.

The Government’s Rationale: Protectionism Over Revenue

What is the Russian government trying to protect? The answer lies in Russia’s domestic automotive manufacturing sector. According to the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, Russia’s domestic car production has struggled to compete with affordable used imports from Japan. Major Russian automakers like AvtoVAZ (producer of Lada vehicles), GAZ Group, and Sollers have faced declining market share as consumers increasingly opted for higher-quality used Japanese imports at competitive prices.

The recycling fee is effectively a protectionist trade barrier designed to make imported used vehicles economically unviable, thereby forcing Russian consumers toward domestically manufactured new cars. By pricing used imports out of the market, the government aims to:

– Increase demand for Russian-made vehicles
– Protect domestic manufacturing jobs
– Encourage foreign automakers to establish local production facilities in Russia
– Reduce foreign currency outflows from vehicle imports

This strategy mirrors protectionist policies used by other countries to shield domestic industries from foreign competition. However, critics argue that rather than improving the competitiveness of Russian manufacturers, the policy simply removes consumer choice and forces Russians to pay more for lower-quality domestic alternatives.

When the draft government decree became available for public discussion on the federal regulatory portal, it received a record number of official dislikes from citizens, 132,300 versus 695 likes. Because of that, the enforcement was postponed from the originally planned November 1st to December 1st, but the content of the decree remained unchanged.

The Market Reaction: Panic Buying and Record Registrations

Facing the expected freeze on imports in Russia, there was a surge in demand for used foreign cars brought in via delivery. In October 2025, about 12 percent of the entire Russian auto market consisted of cars imported unofficially from abroad, according to the director of the analytics agency Autostat. Over one month, 19,700 such cars were registered, the highest number since April 2022.

Customs offices in the Far East from November 27th switched to round-the-clock operation to register as many cars as possible under the old rules, announced the Federal Customs Service. In anticipation of rising prices on the auto market, sales of new cars spiked sharply. In October, 171,200 cars were sold, a record for the past 3.5 years. At the same time, actual transaction prices rose by 20 percent over the last three months due to elimination of discounts and support programmes.

Which Vehicles Are Affected

The new method of calculating the recycling fee will hit hardest popular Japanese mid-range cars that Russians used to import. This includes models like the Toyota RAV4, Toyota Highlander, Subaru Levorg, and powerful versions of Japanese SUVs. Korean models such as Hyundai Santa Fe, Hyundai Palisade, Hyundai Tucson and Kia Sportage are also affected, as well as Chinese vehicles like the Geely Monjaro.

Among used cars older than three years and with more than 160 horsepower, in the first nine months of 2025 the most in-demand Japanese models were the Subaru Levorg, along with the BMW 5 Series, Kia Sorento and Kia Carnival. Among new cars up to three years old, Russians most often imported via alternative channels Japanese models such as the Toyota RAV4 and Toyota Highlander, alongside the Geely Monjaro, BMW X3 and Geely Coolray.

An auto-shipment company representative explained that the smallest price increases will apply to cars with:

• Engines up to 2 litres
• Power up to 250 horsepower
• Age up to 3 years

An expert noted that for a brand like Toyota, only 3.5 to 4 percent of alternative imports belonged to cars with power below 160 horsepower.

However, many Japanese automakers offer models with engines whose power does not exceed 160 horsepower. These can still be imported to Russia for personal use under the previous preferential rates. Examples include the Honda Vezel compact crossover, the Mazda CX-30 and Mazda CX-50 with 150-hp engines, and small cars such as the Suzuki Baleno, Toyota Belta, and Mitsubishi Outlander. Base versions of the Nissan Qashqai and some European models like the BMW 3 Series or Audi Q3 also remain eligible for import under old fees, along with the Korean sedan Hyundai Elantra.

What This Means for Global Markets

The immediate impact of Russia’s policy change will likely be a reduction in demand for mid-size and SUVs at auction in Japan. With one of the largest buyers suddenly impacted in the market, we anticipate:

– Lower auction prices on popular Japanese models like the Toyota RAV4, Toyota Highlander, Subaru Levorg, and mid-range Japanese SUVs as Russian demand is suppressed
– Reduced competition for these vehicles, creating pricing opportunities for dealers in markets like New Zealand, Australia, the UK, and Ireland
– Shifts in auction dynamics as the fee changes demand pressures

Russia primarily imports mid-size cars and SUVs from Japan, the same popular models targeted by dealers globally. The reduction in Russian demand is expected to flow directly through to lower auction prices for these affected models. At Nichibo, we’re closely watching how this reduced competition translates into pricing opportunities for our dealer partners globally.

This policy change demonstrates how quickly market dynamics can shift. Dealers who understand and anticipate regulatory change can protect from regulatory risk and position themselves to benefit where others struggle.

Why Expertise Matters

At Nichibo, we don’t just facilitate vehicle imports. We focus on what matters most to dealers: understanding how market shifts impact auction pricing and sourcing opportunities. When a major buyer like Russia exits the market for popular Japanese models, we anticipate how that reduced demand will flow through to lower auction prices, and we help our dealer partners position themselves to benefit from these pricing opportunities.

We help dealers understand total landed cost transparency, accounting for customs duties, recycling fees where applicable, compliance costs, and shipping logistics. Our human-led quality assurance process ensures that dealers aren’t compounding market risk with vehicle condition risk.

The Russian market may have closed for many vehicles, but for dealers in other markets, this represents a potential opportunity. Reduced competition at auction for popular Japanese models may translate into better pricing. Understanding these market dynamics and acting on them is what separates successful dealers from those who miss the opportunity.

References and Further Reading

• Russian Government Official Decrees: government.ru/docs
• Federal Regulatory Portal: regulation.gov.ru
• Federal Customs Service of Russia: customs.gov.ru

Need help navigating the changing landscape of global vehicle imports? Contact Nichibo today. We help you understand how market shifts translate into pricing opportunities.